GCZ13 (Gold Futures) is currently stalling or resting at a significant level at 1290.3. When price has expansion like the move from the key level 1333.8 to 1290.3, it is common for there to be a resting period so there can be balance between buyers and sellers.  The markets move in cycles of expansion and contraction.

Typically the contraction plays out in the form of either a triangle, wedge or rectangle type of consolidation, this offers initial support and resistance lines.  In the case of GCZ13, it’s somewhat of a triangular type of contraction.

More importantly a hold below 1290.3 has heavy confluence support test at 1271.2 region … Heavy confluence comprises of an area where multiple rotations or means of support or resistance fall together into a common area.  So in this case on the hourly chart, 1271.2 to 1267.1 is a confluence zone, derived from a previous low, a harmonic rotation AB=CD and another fib target when a previous low (or high) is taken out.

When price forms a multiple target zone, it tells a story if buyers are unable to defend it, in other words, if that level fails to hold as support.

What’s the story?  The bigger picture is there’s a large harmonic pattern, Bullish Deep Crab shown in green that has a completion target at 1171.6.  There’s a smaller emerging blue pattern that can help price push below the significant level 1290.3 which can encourage sellers to hop on board to complete the larger pattern.  The story is, if buyers succeed in defending 1271.2, it can prevent the completion of the large pattern, either at this time or all together. A hold above 1290.3 implies consolidation continuation or a bounce into either the falling moving averages which currently offer a bearish bias, or a test of the key level 1333.8 that price rejected in a swift manner.

Another interpretation of the story is if price holds below that confluence zone, it increases the probability of completing that large Bullish Deep Crab harmonic pattern and the 1271.2 region was merely a target from a short position perspective.  There are some scaling points along the way at 1248.1, 1242.9 & 1209.8.