Gold futures is telling harmonic stories on longer and shorter perspectives.  The weekly chart shows price is in a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern scenario.  There’s a key level of 1222.9 which helps us determine the probability of bouncing into retracement mode or falling further to the downside to test extreme targets for the Bat.

More chapters regarding this weekly chart’s stories are that the bias is to the downside until price can hold initially above 1222.9, but more importantly above 1309, to increase the probability of the retracement mode.  The ideal minimum retracement target is 1447.2 and the ideal retracement target is 1941 with scaling points or points of interest at 1635.8 and 1809.6.  Keep in mind that each one of these bars are a week’s span, so it could be July of this year before testing 1447.2 region.  A hold below 1222.9 has the initial target of a retest of 1142 then the extreme downside target for the Bat at 1025.1 and scaling points or potential bounce regions at 1115.6 and 1115.6.

Currently there is extremely less downside fuel while retesting this 1168.1 area, and the best way I can describe it is to use a Saturday Night Live skit quote “I need more cowbell” to have some conviction to remain bearish.

For an intraday perspective, I’m using an STRenko 20 bar chart.

At the time of this writing, price is approaching a bearish Gartley completion target of 1206.  This intraday chart shows an upside bias and each noted level that price can take out (or hold above) increases the probability of reaching the ideal target of 1222.8.  This is so very close to the weekly important level of 1222.9.  This will definitely be a decision point area.  Keep in mind that a breach of 1206 could test the 1210.3 but what’s key is if it returns to hold back below 1206 or not.

This perspective shows that 1190 is an important support region and should price go below there it will invalidate this particular blue pattern scenario and we can then go back to those weekly levels determined by the extreme for that Alternate Bat completion.

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