Natural Gas Futures In Retracement Mode

NGJ14 completed a daily harmonic pattern called a Bearish Bat, and has been in retracement mode.  So far this retracement is considered shallow, and price is stalling in the middle of a GRZ (Golden Ratio Zone aka the area between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci Ratios).

3-2-2014 NG DThe Day chart shows there is confluence at that 50% pull back region, this is also the last chance to validate a bullish cross of moving averages.  So a hold at this 50 ema and 50% fib ratio at 4.504 offers a long opportunity to test the top of the GRZ at 4.900,  keeps the upside bias and implies a retest attempt of 6.182.

A hold above 6.182 has the ideal upside target of 8.829 and scaling points (aka potential rejection points) at 7.018 and 7.954.

A hold below 4.504 shifts the bias to downside, to continue the retracement mode with the ideal target of 2.825 and scaling points at 4.107 and 3.208.

3-2-2014 NG 10k VTo help determine clues as to what is happening at this daily level 4.504, I’m looking at a 10,000 volume chart with the nearby daily levels marked in large font on this chart.  This shows there is a slight upside bias with the initial resistance test at 4.801, a potential breach to test the daily 4.900 level but harmonically speaking, a test of 5.106 minimum is a required bounce point.

Failure to get to that 5.106 target, or a rejection of 4.801 or 4.900 increases the probability of retracement mode.

Success of testing 5.106 becomes a level of importance in regards to the GRZ.  A hold above 5.106 has the ideal target at 6.182 and the gray fibs along the way as potential rejection levels with emphasis at 5.517.  A test and rejection of 5.106 has the ideal downside target at 3.059 which has correlation with the daily Bullish Bat PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone aka harmonic pattern completion zone).